A couple of days ago we wrote about General Motors abandoning its Cruise robotaxi. This is not surprising. Robotaxis are really computers on wheels, and the driver is software - artificial intelligence. General Motors is not a software company. This may seem like an obvious statement but it has profound implications.

Software companies are used to rapid prototyping, rapid cycles of creation, testing, destruction, corrections and a new round of testing. Companies that work with material things simply cannot match this level of speed. In large measure it’s psychological – even if you hire young computer team, the management still has “physical world limitations” mentality. Tesla and SpaceX do try to replicate this software process – that’s why spectacular explosions of the Starship are considered part of the development plan – but keep in mind Elon Musk made his first fortune in computer software, so the push comes from the top, and he has the understanding that there will be inevitable, frequent, and often spectacular failures along the way. GM management decided  the 10 billion expense was enough.

So if GM, and Ford / VW (which canceled their Argo AI self-driving project couple of years ago) are out, then who is in? Surprisingly Apple is out as well. This leaves some smaller startups and two major players: Google and Tesla.

For Tesla, self-driving car is not a separate project but simply a natural development path, so it cannot be canceled. And Tesla has its own artificial intelligence platform that will continue as well. Google also develops its own artificial intelligence, and it owns Waymo – a self- driving robotaxi company. Waymo driverless taxis are seen everywhere in San Francisco, and have been subject of many complaints, but Google manages to keep them on the streets of San Francisco.

Tesla and Google are the frontrunners – both have deep pockets, and both understand software. So even if some startup comes up with breakthrough technology, chances are it will get bought out by one of the frontrunners. Thus it is likely that in the not too-distant future we will have a choice to ride in a Tesla or Google robotaxi – or stick to our familiar, personal vehicles.